2010 predictions from 1989: The Duchess of York never made it to the Moon - Roland Gribben reports on how the Telegraph of 1989 envisaged the world today.
I don't know whether anyone else has ever prayed that the Duchess of York could be exiled to the Moon – but I'm fairly sure I'm the only person who's done so for purely professional reasons.
In 1989, The Daily Telegraph asked a group of futurologists to predict what the unimaginably distant year of 2010 would look like, and asked me to write up the findings. This year, as the months ticked by, I waited for validation of one of the prophecies: namely, that lunar landings would become so commonplace that the Duchess would become the first member of the Royal family to visit outer space. Alas, it was not to be. Still, the experts did claim that America would have a black president – so thank you, Barack Obama, for sparing their blushes in the nick of time.
On a different planet: the Duchess didn't go to the Moon, but some other forecasts were remarkably accurate. Photo: POPPERFOTO/GETTY IMAGES
Aside from the forecast that Britain would be back in the space race, courtesy of Russia giving us a piggyback ride to Mars, most of the predictions by Applied Futures, a consultancy specialising in long-term strategic planning, were rather more serious than whimsical: there were some big misses, some near misses and a fair sprinkling of accurate forecasts. But they all offer food for thought, not to mention casting an intriguing light on the late-Eighties mentality.
One of the project's worst excesses was its optimistic view of the world of work. The British worker in 2010, the experts confidently predicted, would be able to qualify for sabbaticals of up to a year, in a newly liberalised nation. Society would be more geared to leisure than work: indeed, Britain would be driving a fundamental change from a world based on materialism to a "general consciousness" that people mattered. Our standard of living, measured in material terms, would no longer be regarded as a measure of wellbeing – a sentiment David Cameron would doubtless agree with.
The team, led by Christine McNulty, had few reservations in predicting a greater focus on shopping, partly because the signposts were already well illuminated. Shopping by TV, with the help of cash-dispenser-type ordering terminals and delivery within 24 hours from automated warehouses controlled by robots, would take the drudgery out of proceedings. People would be healthier and live longer, through advances in medicine and science – although predictions that Aids would be a thing of the past were premature. The team also suggested that many homes would be equipped with medical equipment for regular check-ups through the development of DIY doctoring (which is now, finally, starting to happen).
The experts made a modest attempt to predict changes in social behaviour. By now, marriage should be almost old-fashioned and there should be fewer divorces. Why? The evolution of the "seven-year itch" – a partnership or marriage contract renewable or abandoned every seven years. Economically speaking, the North-South divide would disappear as the "vibrancy and dynamism" of the South East were exported to the rest of the country, and technology would turn the computer into the nerve centre of households. The team also forecast fewer traffic jams, thanks to automated systems maintaining distance between vehicles and goods vehicles that were able to run on road or rail. Driverless mini-trains (as seen on the Docklands Light Railway), smaller, quieter aircraft and "single-person heli-systems" were also envisaged to help the mobile executive get around faster.
In politics, there was no expectation that Britain would be governed by a coalition – although the prime minister would, we said, be able to speak three languages (in fact, David Cameron goes one better with four, while his deputy, Nick Clegg, can boast five). Proportional representation and voting via television would be part and parcel of the democratic set-up, rather than the subject of an imminent referendum and a staple of Saturday-night television respectively.
Overall, McNulty acknowledges that the team were perhaps too optimistic. "We thought we were doing pretty well for the first 15 years. There were things we missed – the financial crisis, the internet and wars – that have had a huge effect on the economy and budgets. We also missed global warming, but we still got many things rights. I think that on a score basis we did better than 50 per cent." And the trips to the Moon? "Nasa had to cut its budgets."
Yet even though the report failed to predict the internet – a rather significant omission – there was a general understanding of the ways in which communications technology would shape our lives. The study visualised our communication centres becoming part of expanded leisure centres, with children using their home computers to play chess or Space Invaders with friends in other countries. Books and magazines would be produced on a collaborative basis, while those with particular interests would sign up for clubs that communicated via electronic mail.
One failed prediction was that the intelligent use of computers would transform homework for youngsters, allowing them to experiment with body sensors and activate real images. Viewers should have had the ability to adapt films to enable them to superimpose their own image on screen, or recreate Dickens's London or a trip along the seabed, complete with sights, sounds and smells. Heady stuff, but all relatively practical – the basis for the technology is still kicking around, as are the screens that would give runners or rowers the sense that they are jogging along the Great Wall of China or sculling along the River Cam.
So what would happen if you took another 21-year look through the crystal ball? McNulty sees the struggle for dominance between generations as being one of the most interesting areas to explore. "Young people – the 'digital natives' who were born 'cable ready' – communicate quickly and effectively by text messaging and social media. They recognise and reject what they consider to be hypocrisy. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some of the kids that get kicked out of school today for being disruptive could well be among the best and brightest, but the school environment is anathema to them. How can we harness that intelligence and creativity and get them to participate in society instead of against it?"
In the technological field, Ian Pearson, a futurologist formerly with BT, says that artificial intelligence will play a key role, as nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science converge to transform our lives, leading to "the mastery of materials, synthetic biology and consciousness and the technology of life itself ".
"As well as redesigning nature to include superior synthetic biology and repairing our environment," he says, "we will bring about the forging of ever closer links between man and machine, ultimately leading to a full direct brain link, the extension of our minds into the machine world and hence electronic immortality." In the meantime, "it's not silly to think that an artificial intelligence could be elected to Parliament. There is a question about the date, but people will get emotional about machines and become friends with them and care for them. "We are witnessing the start of the age of augmented reality, electronically enhancing our view of the world. Ultimately we will see augmented reality as the platform that converges the real and virtual worlds and the consequences of that, once fully developed, will dwarf the impact of the World Wide Web." ( telegraph.co.uk )
Is he right? Check back here in a couple of decades for the answer…
I don't know whether anyone else has ever prayed that the Duchess of York could be exiled to the Moon – but I'm fairly sure I'm the only person who's done so for purely professional reasons.
In 1989, The Daily Telegraph asked a group of futurologists to predict what the unimaginably distant year of 2010 would look like, and asked me to write up the findings. This year, as the months ticked by, I waited for validation of one of the prophecies: namely, that lunar landings would become so commonplace that the Duchess would become the first member of the Royal family to visit outer space. Alas, it was not to be. Still, the experts did claim that America would have a black president – so thank you, Barack Obama, for sparing their blushes in the nick of time.
On a different planet: the Duchess didn't go to the Moon, but some other forecasts were remarkably accurate. Photo: POPPERFOTO/GETTY IMAGES
Aside from the forecast that Britain would be back in the space race, courtesy of Russia giving us a piggyback ride to Mars, most of the predictions by Applied Futures, a consultancy specialising in long-term strategic planning, were rather more serious than whimsical: there were some big misses, some near misses and a fair sprinkling of accurate forecasts. But they all offer food for thought, not to mention casting an intriguing light on the late-Eighties mentality.
One of the project's worst excesses was its optimistic view of the world of work. The British worker in 2010, the experts confidently predicted, would be able to qualify for sabbaticals of up to a year, in a newly liberalised nation. Society would be more geared to leisure than work: indeed, Britain would be driving a fundamental change from a world based on materialism to a "general consciousness" that people mattered. Our standard of living, measured in material terms, would no longer be regarded as a measure of wellbeing – a sentiment David Cameron would doubtless agree with.
The team, led by Christine McNulty, had few reservations in predicting a greater focus on shopping, partly because the signposts were already well illuminated. Shopping by TV, with the help of cash-dispenser-type ordering terminals and delivery within 24 hours from automated warehouses controlled by robots, would take the drudgery out of proceedings. People would be healthier and live longer, through advances in medicine and science – although predictions that Aids would be a thing of the past were premature. The team also suggested that many homes would be equipped with medical equipment for regular check-ups through the development of DIY doctoring (which is now, finally, starting to happen).
The experts made a modest attempt to predict changes in social behaviour. By now, marriage should be almost old-fashioned and there should be fewer divorces. Why? The evolution of the "seven-year itch" – a partnership or marriage contract renewable or abandoned every seven years. Economically speaking, the North-South divide would disappear as the "vibrancy and dynamism" of the South East were exported to the rest of the country, and technology would turn the computer into the nerve centre of households. The team also forecast fewer traffic jams, thanks to automated systems maintaining distance between vehicles and goods vehicles that were able to run on road or rail. Driverless mini-trains (as seen on the Docklands Light Railway), smaller, quieter aircraft and "single-person heli-systems" were also envisaged to help the mobile executive get around faster.
In politics, there was no expectation that Britain would be governed by a coalition – although the prime minister would, we said, be able to speak three languages (in fact, David Cameron goes one better with four, while his deputy, Nick Clegg, can boast five). Proportional representation and voting via television would be part and parcel of the democratic set-up, rather than the subject of an imminent referendum and a staple of Saturday-night television respectively.
Overall, McNulty acknowledges that the team were perhaps too optimistic. "We thought we were doing pretty well for the first 15 years. There were things we missed – the financial crisis, the internet and wars – that have had a huge effect on the economy and budgets. We also missed global warming, but we still got many things rights. I think that on a score basis we did better than 50 per cent." And the trips to the Moon? "Nasa had to cut its budgets."
Yet even though the report failed to predict the internet – a rather significant omission – there was a general understanding of the ways in which communications technology would shape our lives. The study visualised our communication centres becoming part of expanded leisure centres, with children using their home computers to play chess or Space Invaders with friends in other countries. Books and magazines would be produced on a collaborative basis, while those with particular interests would sign up for clubs that communicated via electronic mail.
One failed prediction was that the intelligent use of computers would transform homework for youngsters, allowing them to experiment with body sensors and activate real images. Viewers should have had the ability to adapt films to enable them to superimpose their own image on screen, or recreate Dickens's London or a trip along the seabed, complete with sights, sounds and smells. Heady stuff, but all relatively practical – the basis for the technology is still kicking around, as are the screens that would give runners or rowers the sense that they are jogging along the Great Wall of China or sculling along the River Cam.
So what would happen if you took another 21-year look through the crystal ball? McNulty sees the struggle for dominance between generations as being one of the most interesting areas to explore. "Young people – the 'digital natives' who were born 'cable ready' – communicate quickly and effectively by text messaging and social media. They recognise and reject what they consider to be hypocrisy. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some of the kids that get kicked out of school today for being disruptive could well be among the best and brightest, but the school environment is anathema to them. How can we harness that intelligence and creativity and get them to participate in society instead of against it?"
In the technological field, Ian Pearson, a futurologist formerly with BT, says that artificial intelligence will play a key role, as nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science converge to transform our lives, leading to "the mastery of materials, synthetic biology and consciousness and the technology of life itself ".
"As well as redesigning nature to include superior synthetic biology and repairing our environment," he says, "we will bring about the forging of ever closer links between man and machine, ultimately leading to a full direct brain link, the extension of our minds into the machine world and hence electronic immortality." In the meantime, "it's not silly to think that an artificial intelligence could be elected to Parliament. There is a question about the date, but people will get emotional about machines and become friends with them and care for them. "We are witnessing the start of the age of augmented reality, electronically enhancing our view of the world. Ultimately we will see augmented reality as the platform that converges the real and virtual worlds and the consequences of that, once fully developed, will dwarf the impact of the World Wide Web." ( telegraph.co.uk )
Is he right? Check back here in a couple of decades for the answer…
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